The U. S. holiday shopping season is projected to generate $253. 4 billion in online sales this year, marking a 5. 3% increase compared to last year, according to a recent report from Adobe’s e-commerce division, Adobe Analytics. Adobe Analytics bases its forecasts on analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U. S. retail websites, covering 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories. Its analytics software is utilized by the majority of the top 100 online retailers in the U. S. , providing extensive insight into online shopping trends and consumer behavior. The company predicts that Cyber Monday will once again be the biggest shopping day of the season, with sales expected to rise 6. 3% year-over-year to $14. 2 billion. Black Friday is also expected to grow, increasing 8. 3% year-over-year to $11. 7 billion. Online spending on Thanksgiving Day is forecasted at $6. 4 billion, up 4. 9% from last year, indicating the season’s early start. This holiday season’s sales growth is largely driven by consumer demand for discounts, with products anticipated to be offered at an average of 28% off list prices. Additional factors contributing to higher online sales include increased mobile-device shopping, the adoption of AI-powered shopping tools, and the rising use of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services. Significantly, Adobe forecasts a strong surge in generative AI-powered shopping this year, with AI-related traffic expected to increase by 520% year-over-year and peak during the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.

This follows a remarkable 1, 300% growth in AI traffic to U. S. retail sites observed in 2024. According to a survey of 5, 000 U. S. consumers, 53% indicated they might use AI services primarily for research before making purchases. The survey also found that 40% would use AI for personalized recommendations, 36% for finding deals, and 30% for gift ideas. Adobe anticipates AI usage will be especially prevalent in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care. Another emerging trend is the increasing dominance of mobile devices in online shopping, expected to account for a record 56. 1% share of online spending this season, up from 54. 5% last year and 51. 1% in 2023. It remains uncertain when this mobile growth will level off, especially given the trend toward larger-screen smartphones that facilitate online shopping. The 2025 holiday season is also expected to see continued expansion of BNPL services, forecasted to drive $20. 2 billion in online spending, an 11% increase year-over-year and about $2 billion more than in the 2024 holiday period. Cyber Monday specifically is predicted to hit a new BNPL milestone, with $1. 04 billion in sales through these services, up 5% year-over-year. Social media is projected to significantly boost online sales as well, with social media advertising expected to generate a 51% increase in online revenue year-over-year, a substantial rise from the 5% growth seen in 2024. Leading spending categories overall include electronics at $57. 5 billion (up 4% year-over-year), apparel at $47. 6 billion (up 4. 4% year-over-year), and furniture at $31. 1 billion (up 6. 5% year-over-year).