The European e-commerce sector is poised for a major transformation driven by the rise of "agentic AI"—advanced AI assistants set to reshape online shopping. A recent Morgan Stanley report forecasts that these AI agents will boost Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) by creating a smoother, more efficient shopping experience. However, the long-term impact on profit margins remains uncertain, highlighting the complexities of the digital commerce evolution. Agentic AI will revolutionize the consumer journey by handling product discovery and decision-making, offering personalized recommendations, refining searches, and anticipating needs more effectively than traditional algorithms. This enhanced efficiency is expected to increase sales and GMV. Yet, the growing role of AI in purchase guidance raises concerns for merchants and marketplace operators. One key issue identified by Morgan Stanley is the likely rise in paid traffic costs compared to organic reach. As AI agents dominate discovery, merchants may need to spend more on advertising outside marketplaces to stay visible, leading to higher customer acquisition costs and shrinking profitability. This shift could also disrupt marketplace dynamics by moving ad spend off-platform, pressuring revenue models. In light of these changes, Morgan Stanley is reassessing how it values e-commerce companies. Historically compared to tech firms due to their digital nature, marketplaces will now be benchmarked against logistics companies. This shift recognizes that physical delivery and fulfillment infrastructure are vital defensive assets amid AI-driven competition. Logistics capabilities—including warehousing, last-mile delivery, and supply chain management—are increasingly seen as an "underappreciated moat" protecting platforms from disruption. By optimizing these tangible assets, e-commerce companies can provide better customer experiences and maintain cost advantages despite AI’s impact on the user interface.

Morgan Stanley stresses the ongoing importance of logistics in sustaining market competitiveness. Within this context, Allegro (WA:ALEP) is highlighted as a favored investment. Its diversified logistics network positions it well to withstand AI-induced margin pressures. Despite a recent downturn considered "overdone" by Morgan Stanley, the firm projects a 38% upside from its PLN 38. 00 price target, supported by Allegro’s strong delivery infrastructure and adaptability in an AI-enhanced marketplace. Conversely, Morgan Stanley takes a more cautious view on Kaspi. kz AO (NASDAQ:KSPI), reducing net income estimates by up to 5% for 2026-2028. This reflects a revised valuation of Kaspi. kz’s marketplace segment, now benchmarked by logistics multiples rather than tech standards, underscoring the industry trend that physical delivery is critical to long-term earnings. As AI technologies evolve alongside traditional retail, Europe’s e-commerce landscape will undergo significant change. Success will depend on platforms’ ability to combine robust logistics assets with AI-driven user interfaces. Companies mastering this balance are expected to lead the emerging agent-led economy, while those failing to adapt may encounter serious challenges. In summary, the Morgan Stanley report offers a thorough analysis of agentic AI’s transformational effects on European e-commerce. While AI promises increased GMV, the sustainability of profit margins and shifting valuation models signal a period of adjustment. Physical logistics infrastructure emerges as a strategic asset and competitive differentiator, essential for weathering disruption. Investors and operators will closely monitor how firms like Allegro leverage these strengths to thrive in the evolving digital commerce environment. The dynamic interplay between AI innovation and logistics excellence will shape Europe’s e-commerce future.