The primary advantage that combat pilots had over artificial intelligence (AI) was their unpredictability.

However, a recent study threatens this advantage. Reading Time: 2 minutes Why you can trust SCMP. Stephen Chen in Beijing Published: 10:00 AM, March 12, 2025 Updated: 11:33 AM, March 12, 2025 In a groundbreaking development poised to transform the landscape of air combat, Chinese researchers claim to have eliminated humanity’s last tactical edge over AI in dogfights: the ability to outmaneuver algorithms through unpredictable, high-stakes aerial maneuvers. Described in a study released late last year, the technique integrates advanced infrared imaging with AI-powered predictive modeling to forecast an opponent's actions by detecting subtle movements in their wings and tail. This advancement could render even the most nimble fighter jets, such as the US F-15, nearly powerless, according to the team at the Northwest Institute of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering in Xiangyang, which is a vital research division of Norinco, China's largest arms manufacturer. Published in the December edition of the Journal of Gun Launch & Control, the study tackles a significant shortcoming of current AI air combat systems: their dependency on trajectory-based predictions, which often fail to accommodate sudden, non-linear maneuvers by human pilots. Led by senior engineer Lin Zhiwei, the researchers overcame this limitation by concentrating on the physical mechanics of the adversary's aircraft. Employing a customized YOLOv8 neural network, their system evaluates infrared images to identify minute deformations in an opponent’s control surfaces—such as the F-15’s 1. 5-meter (five-foot) rudder and two-meter (6. 5-foot) elevator—while in flight.