Since the release of OpenAI's generative AI chatbot ChatGPT in November 2022, AI-related companies have experienced an influx of investors seeking to capitalize on this transformative technology. The resulting hype has sparked a debate on Wall Street, questioning whether investors' enthusiasm for AI is justified or excessive. Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary who joined OpenAI's board of directors in late 2022, recently shared his perspective on this debate at the Fortune Innovation Forum in Hong Kong. He emphasized the familiar pattern of technological innovation, stating, "The general rule is that technological advancements take longer to materialize than expected, and then they accelerate faster than anticipated. " In contrast to many AI proponents, Summers does not believe that AI's full potential will be realized in the near future. He stated, "I don't think we will witness a productivity revolution in the next three to five years. " According to Summers, achieving the "last mile" of technological development, where groundbreaking technology becomes accessible to the general public, typically requires more time than anticipated. He referred to the "productivity J curve, " explaining that substantial productivity gains from a new idea necessitate significant investments in research and development over several years. Summers used autonomous vehicles as an illustrative example, highlighting that despite years of dedicated work, no chauffeurs, truck drivers, or taxi drivers have been displaced from their jobs.

He emphasized that while considerable labor has been devoted to autonomous vehicles, there is no tangible output reflected in statistical data. However, it is important to note that Summers is by no means skeptical about AI. Looking ahead to the next generation, he believes that AI has the potential to be the most significant development in economic history since the Industrial Revolution. He envisions AI capable of replacing not just some, but nearly all forms of human labor, particularly cognitive tasks performed by white-collar workers. Summers went on to speculate that as AI gradually assumes various human job roles, emotional intelligence (EQ) will become increasingly vital compared to intellectual intelligence (IQ). While AI might substitute for a doctor in making complex diagnoses, Summers argued that it would not replace a nurse's ability to provide emotional support to a frightened patient. In summary, Summers acknowledges that the true impact of AI may take longer to manifest than currently expected. Nonetheless, he wholeheartedly believes in its transformative potential, anticipating a future where AI not only complements but increasingly replaces various human occupations.