Tesla’s most recent US sales data tells a nuanced story for the electric vehicle giant. In November 2025, Tesla’s deliveries in the US plunged to their lowest level in nearly four years, primarily due to the expiration of federal tax credits. Despite this operational setback, Tesla’s stock closed higher on Friday, leading market watchers to wonder if investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence prospects is overshadowing challenges within the core automotive business. Aggressive Incentives Launched to Offset Decline In response to the subsidy expiration, Tesla has rolled out its most extensive incentive program in years to boost demand. For deliveries completed by December 31, 2025, the company is offering 0% financing for up to 72 months. It has also introduced zero-down leasing options for the Model Y, signaling a clear effort to clear inventory and improve year-end sales figures. Market Share Gains Despite Overall Market Shrinkage According to Cox Automotive, Tesla sold roughly 39, 800 vehicles in the US during November 2025, marking a 23% drop from the same month the previous year and the weakest monthly sales since January 2022. The main cause was the end of the $7, 500 federal tax credit at September’s close, which had previously boosted demand by pulling sales forward into Q3. Yet, context matters. Although Tesla’s absolute sales declined, the overall US EV market contracted by over 41%. Within this reduced market, Tesla’s share surged from 43. 1% to 56. 7%. Analysts observe that the elimination of the subsidy disproportionately impacted sales of Tesla’s standard models, potentially shifting buyers toward its higher-margin premium variants. Should Investors Act Now?

Buy or Sell Tesla? Analysts Diverge at an Important Valuation Juncture Wall Street’s opinions vary regarding the disconnect between Tesla’s weak delivery numbers and its resilient share price. Barclays kept its “Equal Weight” rating, suggesting that the weaker delivery data has limited short-term impact on the stock, noting that the investment thesis has fundamentally shifted. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight, ” but paradoxically lifted its price target slightly to $425. Analyst Andrew Percoco warned that soaring expectations for Tesla’s AI projects have already inflated the company’s valuation, increasing the risk of disappointment from its core automotive operations. Deutsche Bank remains more bullish, maintaining a “Buy” rating with a $470 price target. Their view is that investors will continue to overlook weaknesses in automotive results as long as macroeconomic conditions remain stable and the AI and robotics narrative endures. Looking Forward: Margins and Macro Developments Attention is now on Europe, where decisions expected tomorrow regarding potential changes to the combustion engine phase-out will be closely watched. The real test will come with Tesla’s quarterly earnings report in late January 2026, which will clarify whether Tesla’s aggressive discounting has materially hurt automotive margins and if the company can substantiate the high expectations placed on its AI-driven future. Ad Tesla Stock: Buy or Sell?Fresh Analysis from December 15 Reveals the Answer The latest Tesla data is clear: urgent action may be required for investors. Should you buy, or is it time to sell?Discover recommended next steps in the free updated analysis from December 15.