In a grand conference room in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, illuminated by chandeliers, performers showcased a dazzling dance while a digital avatar sang John Lennon’s "Imagine, " heralding the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) at the Global AI Summit. This event marked the conclusion of what a government minister called the “world’s largest AI thought leadership event. ” The Summit was notable for its vibrant display, with robots serving drinks and government officials extolling Saudi Arabia’s AI advancements, alongside American and Chinese tech companies forming partnerships. For Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), AI is key to diversifying their economies away from oil. The two Gulf states are increasingly attractive to U. S. tech firms looking for investment opportunities amid their substantial oil wealth. Washington views this as a strategic chance to strengthen ties and reduce Chinese influence in the region. However, U. S. expectations should be tempered. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain strong ties with China, despite their desire for advanced AI technology primarily sourced from the U. S. Both nations have plans for extensive AI investments, with Saudi Arabia aiming to create a $40 billion AI fund and the UAE launching various tech initiatives. U. S. companies like OpenAI, Amazon, and Microsoft have been eager to engage with the Gulf, recognizing the potential for energy, capital, and land to support AI infrastructure. Despite the opportunities, significant risks exist in offshoring advanced AI technologies to countries with authoritarian regimes.

Concerns about Chinese access to AI advancements through Gulf data centers have prompted discussions in Washington about export controls on technology. The UAE has attempted to address these fears, committing to secure data centers and distancing itself from Chinese technology in collaborations with U. S. firms. While the UAE seeks a closer relationship with the U. S. based on AI, it is unlikely to fully forgo connections with China. The Gulf states possess strong incentives to balance their partnerships, particularly given their substantial trade with China. U. S. policymakers should avoid imposing blanket bans on advanced chip sales to the Gulf, understanding that many nations aim to navigate relationships with both superpowers. Instead, Washington should engage with the Gulf states on technology exports, ensuring safeguards without expecting a transformation in their geopolitical alignments. As AI diplomacy matures, the U. S. must manage the dual challenges of safeguarding national security without alienating potential partners or pushing them closer to China. Properly handling negotiations will require vigilance and acknowledgment of the complexities in U. S. -Gulf relations.