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Dec. 26, 2024, 10:29 p.m.
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AI's Emerging Role in Global Elections: Early Impacts and Future Potential

Brief news summary

In the spring, the US introduced VIC, an AI-driven candidate based on ChatGPT, in Wyoming's mayoral race, marking AI's political debut. While there was speculation about AI's potential to reshape the 2024 elections, its impact remained limited. Fears about AI being used for manipulation or spreading deceptive deepfakes were overstated; AI did not significantly change election outcomes. Campaigns avoided deepfakes due to misinformation concerns, instead using AI for generating supportive content. Globally, deepfakes emerged but had little impact on elections, highlighting weaknesses in detection systems. Some politicians exploited this by branding real media as fake, benefiting from the "liar's dividend." AI played a substantial behind-the-scenes role by creating campaign emails, advertisements, and speeches. In countries like Indonesia and India, AI improved translation and strategy, boosting democratic participation, especially for smaller campaigns. Generative AI companies are now guiding political campaigns on integrating technology. Although AI didn't dominate the 2024 elections, it is steadily influencing electoral processes.

In the spring, the US witnessed its first AI political candidate, VIC, a ChatGPT-based bot created by Victor Miller, who briefly campaigned for mayor of Wyoming, promising governance by AI. At the start of 2024, many anticipated AI's significant role in global elections, affecting more than 2 billion voters across 60 countries. However, experts now contend AI had little impact on these elections. While generative AI's potential to produce misleading deepfakes sparked concern, campaigns hesitated to use them due to technological complexity and legal constraints. Analysis revealed that many deepfakes were non-deceptive and primarily deepened partisan divisions without swaying opinions. Nevertheless, misleading deepfakes did circulate, such as those encouraging a boycott during Bangladesh's elections. Detecting AI-generated media remains challenging, with available tools lagging behind technological advancements, particularly outside the US and Western Europe.

Yet, AI played a quieter role, such as writing campaign materials and aiding strategy, with notable applications in Indonesia and India. These uses could democratize election processes by granting small campaigns unprecedented access to resources and helping local candidates engage voters. AI involvement in US campaigns this year included training from Microsoft and Google, but experts like Bruce Schneier believe the "AI election" era is just beginning. AI candidates can also protect individuals in repressive regions; Belarusian dissidents recently used an AI candidate as a protest against their authoritarian government. Although AI's influence in elections is emerging, its impacts suggest significant potential for future democratic processes.


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