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Jan. 19, 2025, 1:40 a.m.
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Nvidia's Stock Struggles Amid AI Boom: Ambarella and Lumentum Thrive

Brief news summary

Nvidia's stock has soared nearly 800% over the past two years, driven by strong demand for data center graphics cards during the AI boom. However, shares declined by 1% in the last quarter, despite exceeding Wall Street expectations, due to concerns over sustainable growth, valuation issues, and short-term margin difficulties linked to its new Blackwell processors. In contrast, smaller firms like Ambarella and Lumentum have thrived amidst these challenges. Ambarella's stock rose 25%, bolstered by a 63% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by demand for its AI-ready CV5 processor, with a forecasted 51% growth for fiscal Q4. Similarly, Lumentum’s stock gained nearly 23%, capitalizing on the growing need for high-speed data transmission for AI servers and achieving a 23% annual growth in its cloud and networking segment. Lumentum anticipates a 56% increase in earnings for the fiscal year, highlighting both companies' positive outlooks as the AI market expands.

Nvidia's stock has significantly benefited from the artificial intelligence (AI) surge, achieving nearly 800% gains over the last two years due to high demand for its data center graphics cards. However, in the past three months, shares have dropped by 1%, despite strong financial results and favorable guidance that exceeded Wall Street expectations. Concerns regarding Nvidia’s growth sustainability, valuation, and short-term margin pressures linked to its new Blackwell processors have pressured the stock price. Conversely, two lesser-known chipmakers—Ambarella and Lumentum Holdings—have seen substantial increases in their stock prices, fueled by AI-related growth. Ambarella's stock rose by 25%, while Lumentum gained nearly 23%. Their advancements in AI application suggest that their growth trajectories are just beginning. Ambarella specializes in automotive and IoT applications, primarily focusing on computer vision chips. The AI computer vision processor market is projected to grow from $17. 2 billion in 2023 to $45. 7 billion by 2028.

Ambarella’s CV5 processor, capable of handling AI tasks in various settings, is driving significant revenue increases, with a reported 63% annual growth in Q3 2025. Its upcoming fiscal Q4 guidance indicates a 51% revenue increase year-over-year. The company anticipates a solid pipeline of $2. 2 billion in automotive revenue through 2031 and sustained growth from its AI vision processors. Lumentum Holdings is also gaining from the rising demand for high-speed data transmission in AI server networking equipment. The spending on generative AI networking equipment is projected to grow by 34% annually, potentially generating $34 billion by 2028. Lumentum reported a 6% increase in its Q1 2025 revenue, with a significant turnaround in cloud and networking sales, which now constitute 84% of its revenue. Analysts expect Lumentum's current quarter revenue to increase by 6% year-over-year, forecasting a total revenue of $1. 59 billion for fiscal 2025, along with an anticipated earnings jump of 56% to $1. 58 per share. Overall, both Ambarella and Lumentum are well-positioned to benefit from the thriving AI market, contrasting with Nvidia's recent struggles.


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