In 2020, Andrew Yang, a Democratic presidential candidate, proposed Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to job displacement caused by artificial intelligence. At that time, OpenAI and ChatGPT were relatively unknown to the general public, with GPT-3 making its debut in June. The idea that a chatbot could perform tasks such as writing blogs, creating presentations, analyzing data, and generating detailed reports with visualizations in just a few minutes was unfamiliar to workers in those fields. While Yang's nomination bid fell short, he was the sole candidate discussing the potential job displacement resulting from this new technology. His suggestion of providing every American adult with a $1, 000 monthly "Freedom Dividend" split public opinion, with some viewing it as necessary and others labeling it socialist. He proposed funding this through a value-added tax (VAT). Since then, several U. S. cities, including Denver, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Oakland, have embraced Yang's ideas, with around 26 million Americans receiving these benefits at the time of writing. A recent poll found that over two-thirds of respondents supported UBI, with higher support from Democrats (82%) than Republicans (48%) and from GenZers (79%) compared to Baby Boomers (63%). Notably, Generation X showed the least favorability at 61%, while 12% remained neutral, and only 20% opposed the concept entirely. It is challenging to ascertain if Yang's system could effectively operate at a national scale. Social Security is the closest example of the federal government implementing a similar program, but according to the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds Annual Report, released on March 31, 2023, it is experiencing financial difficulties. The report suggests that the Medicare Trust Fund will become insolvent by 2031, followed by the Social Security Trust Fund by 2033. This implies that recipients may not receive their full promised benefits without congressional intervention.
Although history suggests that Congress will likely take action, it may lead to future generations working beyond the current retirement age of 67. Considering the recent decline in life expectancy during the pandemic, which has only just slightly recovered to 79. 1 years (81 for females, 77 for males), there would be limited time to enjoy retirement. Implementing Yang's vision nationwide would amount to a $3. 132 trillion expense for a government that spent $1. 45 trillion beyond its revenue in fiscal year 2022. Trusting Washington to make the necessary budget cuts to accommodate UBI requires a significant dose of optimism, as the U. S. government has only achieved budget surpluses five times in the past 50 years, with the most recent modest surplus of $128 billion in 2001. The positive aspect is that AI has the potential to be a substantial job creator if governments can effectively regulate it without stifling innovation. A report from PwC predicts that AI could contribute an average of 14% to 16% to the global economy, equivalent to $15. 7 trillion. If we assume a 14. 5% share of that contribution, it would amount to approximately $3. 7 trillion, more than sufficient to fund a UBI program on the scale envisioned by Yang. Consequently, discussions among regulators regarding temporary measures to address job displacement or support upskilling for employed individuals are expected. Currently, elected officials seem to recognize the significant responsibility they bear. Though they may not fully grasp the intricacies of the technology, their ongoing examination of potential regulations, which began in April of this year, demonstrates an understanding of what is at stake. However, whether this understanding translates into appropriate action remains uncertain. Editor's Note: Aric Mitchell is an AI consultant and communications strategist who produces the AI-focused newsletter, Innovation Dispatch. The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
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