When Donald Trump was last in office, AI systems like ChatGPT had not yet launched. Fast forward, as Trump claims victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, the AI landscape has evolved dramatically. CEO Dario Amodei from Anthropic and Elon Musk predict AI could surpass human intelligence by 2026, whereas others like OpenAI’s Sam Altman propose a more extended timeline. Such advancements could reshape national security and global power. Trump has voiced mixed feelings about AI, viewing it as both a "superpower" and an "alarming" challenge, particularly in the competition with China, which he sees as America's prime adversary in AI development. His administration shows division on AI regulation, with allies like Musk worried about AI's existential threats while others like VP J. D. Vance criticize regulatory moves as industry ploys. Trump plans to dismantle Biden's AI Executive Order, which aimed to manage AI threats while promoting innovation. Critics argue Trump's rollback could weaken civil rights and privacy protections, although some bipartisan elements of Biden's policy may persist. Moreover, the U. S. AI Safety Institute (AISI), established under Biden, faces an uncertain future under Trump, though Congress seeks to solidify it through bipartisan support. Trump's AI strategy emphasizes maintaining U. S.
dominance over China and could involve repealing regulations to expedite infrastructure and chip production. While Trump’s stance on the CHIPS Act remains wary, heightened controls on semiconductor exports to China are expected. The rise of open-source AI, exploited by China, adds complexity, with Trump's coalition split between open-source advocates and China hawks who want to restrict AI technologies. Despite tough rhetoric, Trump's dealings suggest potential for negotiation, exemplified by past compromises with China. Within Trump's camp, divisions persist. Figures like Vance and billionaire Peter Thiel advocate less regulation for innovation, fearing overreach. Meanwhile, some advisers argue for addressing AI’s catastrophic risks, reflecting diverse opinions within Trump's circle, like that of Elon Musk who highlights AI's existential dangers, underscored by his support for AI safety measures. Trump acknowledges AI's potential threats to national security, such as deepfakes triggering conflicts, but his focus remains on outpacing China. Debates on AI policy reflect broader ideological rifts in Trump's coalition, suggesting uncertainty about its future direction. Nevertheless, Trump's leadership on AI policy will be critical during this transformative period.
Trump's AI Policy: Navigating Power and Potential Threats in 2024
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