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Jan. 25, 2026, 9:30 a.m.
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Nvidia and Tesla Future Growth Forecasts: Market Valuations and Investment Insights

Brief news summary

Wall Street expects Nvidia’s adjusted earnings to grow 38% annually over the next three years, supporting its current valuation of 46 times earnings. While a $20 trillion market cap for Nvidia is possible, it’s more likely by 2035 than 2030. Despite uncertainties, Nvidia remains appealing for long-term investors due to strong future earnings potential. Tesla, having lost its EV sales lead to China’s BYD, maintains interest through its focus on physical AI technologies, including autonomous vehicles and robots. Tesla’s full self-driving software, awaiting regulatory approval in Europe and China, aims to create subscription and ride-sharing revenue streams. The company plans to expand robotaxi services and develop the Optimus humanoid robot, which CEO Elon Musk views as disruptive. The physical AI market is projected to grow rapidly, with robotaxi adoption expected to increase nearly 99% annually by 2033 and autonomous vehicle sales forecasted to reach $4 trillion by 2040. Nonetheless, Tesla faces valuation risks amid automotive challenges and uncertainties in physical AI growth, with its future valuation potentially soaring to $25 trillion or collapsing if growth falters. Recently, The Motley Fool removed Nvidia from its top picks but remains confident in other stocks. Investors should carefully consider these factors when evaluating Nvidia and Tesla, noting analyst Trevor Jennewine holds positions in both companies.

Wall Street forecasts that Nvidia's adjusted earnings will grow by 38% annually over the next three years, making its current valuation of 46 times earnings appear quite reasonable. I believe Nvidia has the potential to reach a $20 trillion market value in the future, though the timing is uncertain—it might happen by 2030, but 2035 seems more likely. Nonetheless, the current share price is appealing relative to forward earnings projections, so patient investors might consider initiating a small position today. Tesla: Elon Musk’s prediction implies a 1, 560% upside Last year, Tesla lost its position as the global leader in electric vehicle sales to Chinese automaker BYD. However, investors have largely overlooked the market share decline and corresponding weak financial results, since the investment thesis now revolves around physical AI—a field encompassing autonomous vehicles and robotics. Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) software is currently available in the U. S. , and, pending regulatory approval, is expected to launch in Europe and China by February. Tesla plans to monetize FSD both directly through subscription sales and indirectly via autonomous ride-sharing services. Alphabet's Waymo currently leads the market with commercial robotaxi operations in five U. S. cities. Tesla aims to expand its robotaxi presence from two cities to seven by 2026 and believes its exclusive vision-only approach will enable rapid growth. Tesla is also developing a humanoid robot named Optimus, which could profoundly disrupt the global labor market by automating a wide range of tasks—not only hazardous and mundane jobs but also delicate and precise work such as surgery. CEO Elon Musk has stated that Optimus will eventually become Tesla’s most important product, potentially representing up to 80% of the company’s value. Physical AI presents a major growth opportunity for Tesla. Grand View Research projects the robotaxi market will grow at 99% annually through 2033.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley estimates autonomous vehicle sales could reach nearly $4 trillion annually by 2040, with humanoid robot sales growing at 54% annually through 2035. In summary, Musk asserts Tesla’s expertise in physical AI is unmatched. "No one can do what we do, " he told analysts last year. Yet, Tesla’s stock is challenging to value: the core electric vehicle business is under pressure, and physical AI products have yet to generate significant revenue, creating execution risk. Put simply, Tesla could be worth $25 trillion in the future, but if it fails to capitalize on robotaxi and robotics opportunities, its value could be significantly lower. If investor confidence in the physical AI story erodes and Tesla is revalued as a conventional automaker, the shares could drop by as much as 90%. Should you buy Nvidia stock now? Before purchasing Nvidia shares, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team recently identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now—and Nvidia was not among them. These 10 chosen stocks have the potential to deliver exceptional returns in the coming years. For context, Netflix appeared on this list on December 17, 2004; a $1, 000 investment at that time would now be worth $450, 525. * Likewise, Nvidia was featured on April 15, 2005; a $1, 000 investment then would now equal $1, 133, 107!* Notably, Stock Advisor’s average total return is 937%—vastly outperforming the S&P 500’s 195%. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join a community of individual investors supporting one another. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of January 24, 2026. Trevor Jennewine holds positions in Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla and recommends BYD Company. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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