Wall Street analysts updated their ratings on Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) following the company’s disappointing first-quarter results reported on Thursday. Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $260, while Needham analyst John Todaro maintained a Buy but lowered his price target from $330 to $270. Rosenblatt noted that Coinbase’s revenue of $2. 03 billion missed the consensus estimate of $2. 10 billion by about 3%, though it slightly exceeded Brendler’s own forecast. Transaction revenue came in below expectations at $1. 26 billion versus his $1. 30 billion estimate, as take rates declined more than anticipated in both Consumer and Institutional segments, despite Consumer volumes remaining steady. However, monthly transacting users (MTUs) reached 9. 7 million, surpassing the consensus of 9. 2 million, indicating strong platform engagement despite sequential declines in spot trading volumes. Brendler highlighted that expanding beyond core trading into recurring revenue areas is key to Coinbase’s valuation. This quarter, Subscription and Services Revenue showed strength, with Stablecoins performing better than expected, and premium offerings such as Prime driving growth. Blockchain revenue was the largest positive surprise — staking revenue fell only 8. 5% sequentially, outperforming Brendler’s forecasted 20% drop, despite a 35%+ decline in token prices. Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit, expected to close by year-end, is anticipated to be immediately accretive to adjusted EBITDA. The $2. 9 billion deal enhances Coinbase’s position in the fast-growing derivatives market and boosts its international exchange presence. Deribit’s over $1 trillion in trading volumes are entirely outside the U. S. , and with impending domestic regulatory clarity, substantial synergies are expected. Brendler called this one of the most compelling acquisitions he has seen recently.

He projects second-quarter revenue of $1. 78 billion and adjusted EPS of $2. 48. Needham’s Todaro reported that Coinbase’s top-line narrowly missed Street estimates but modestly exceeded his own projections. Transaction take rates declined slightly for both retail and institutional customers. Positive aspects included USDC growth and the Deribit acquisition, which he expects to finalize by end of 2025. The $2. 9 billion deal consists of $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase stock, aimed primarily at international markets to establish Coinbase as a key player in derivatives globally. Coinbase also recently launched 39 new perpetual contracts and expanded asset collateral types from 3 to 8. Todaro observed a shift in trading volume mix toward Bitcoin and Ethereum over altcoins, indicating a move toward institutional volume in Q2, which depresses revenues due to lower institutional take rates compared to retail. April and May volumes trended notably below Q1 monthly averages. However, with recent crypto price rebounds—Bitcoin rising above $100, 000 and strong altcoin performances—Todaro believes volumes may bottom out in one to two months as asset prices typically recover before volumes. Despite this, he lowered his fiscal 2025 and 2026 estimates to reflect the anticipated lower volumes. Todaro projects Q2 revenue of $1. 56 billion and EPS of $0. 80. At publication on Monday, Coinbase shares rose 5. 74% to $210. 76. Additional context: Analysts warn that tariffs could increase U. S. Bitcoin mining costs by 20%. [Photo credit: Shutterstock]