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Investors on Wall Street and beyond are optimistic about the long-term prospects of the tech rally in 2023, although they are somewhat skeptical about the true potential of the artificial intelligence era. According to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey, 77% of the 514 respondents plan to increase or maintain their exposure to technology stocks in the next six months. Only a small fraction, less than 10%, believe that there is a bubble in the sector that will burst in the near future. This optimism has driven the Nasdaq 100 to achieve its best first half performance in history, leading to higher market valuations and surprising professionals in the finance industry. Despite benefiting from the current market boom driven by AI, survey participants are still cautious about fully embracing the technology. Half of the respondents are not willing to invest personal funds in AI tools for personal or business use, and the majority of firms do not plan to incorporate AI into their trading or investment strategies any time soon. These factors highlight the challenge that companies face in generating profits from investments in the era of OpenAI Inc. 's ChatGPT. "Right now, the hype is getting ahead of itself, " said Ted Mortonson, a technology strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co. The Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 40% year-to-date, driven by the success of tech giants like Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. , as the demand for futuristic tech continues to grow. The benchmark index currently trades at around 25 times estimated earnings, surpassing its 10-year average of approximately 21. In earnings reports, senior corporate executives are increasingly discussing AI and less about the possibility of an impending recession. Unlike the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, AI is not solely based on speculation, as there are already numerous practical applications being developed, albeit still in the early stages. Major players in the industry have released new AI products aimed at improving productivity and attracting corporate clients.
For example, Microsoft's Copilot service is integrated into its widely-used Microsoft 365 software suite, utilizing generative AI to compose emails, summarize documents, and perform calculations more efficiently. Microsoft plans to charge $30 per month for the Copilot service. This offering will face competition from Alphabet Inc. , which is incorporating AI features into its own Workspace apps like Gmail and Google Docs. Alphabet is also launching new products for advertisers and testing an AI-based tool for news organizations. Nvidia Corp. , whose processors are used in computers powering AI applications, has become a prominent example of the current frenzy surrounding the technology, with its stock surging more than 200% this year alone. It is the first chipmaker to achieve a market valuation of $1 trillion, and 29% of MLIV Pulse respondents predict it will become the second- to fourth-largest company in the world within the next two years. However, despite the increasing presence of AI in the workplace, 64% of respondents dismiss the notion that AI will perform core aspects of their jobs within the next three years. Earlier this year, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated that AI would impact seven in 10 jobs in the United States, but only a small percentage of those jobs would be completely replaced by new technologies. Office and administrative support as well as legal functions were identified as the sectors most at risk. With the advancements in AI, robotics, and quantum computing, Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research, believes there is a "reasonable" chance that the US economy will experience a productivity-driven boom. He compared this potential to the Roaring 2020s and stated this in an interview on Bloomberg Television. The MLIV Pulse survey, conducted weekly by Bloomberg's Markets Live team, gathers the opinions of Bloomberg News readers on the terminal and online. This week's survey question asks readers to share their views on whether unlimited Paid Time Off (PTO) is the future of work and how it will impact companies.
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