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Sept. 20, 2024, 9:40 a.m.
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Revolutionary AI Polling Method Predicts New York Primary Results

In a closely monitored June Democratic primary in New York, centrist George Latimer defeated incumbent Jamaal Bowman by a significant margin of 58. 7% to 41. 3%. Preceding the election, two 19-year-old college dropouts in Manhattan conducted a poll that accurately forecasted the results within 371 votes—not by surveying people, but by querying thousands of AI chatbots about their candidate preferences. The co-founders of Aaru, a seven-person firm, claim they have developed a new polling methodology that could revolutionize election forecasts, especially in light of the failures of traditional polls to predict Donald Trump's 2016 win. They create AI agents modeled after typical voters using census data, endowing them with numerous personality traits. These agents continuously gather information online to align their views with real voters, which can lead to shifts in their preferences based on emerging news. For example, after an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, many AI agents initially shifted their voting preference to him, but later reverted after more details about the shooter were revealed. Aaru's polls usually involve around 5, 000 AI respondents, are quick to conduct, and cost significantly less than traditional human surveys. Fink believes traditional polling will become obsolete by the next general election, citing the unreliability of human responses.

Aaru has begun providing polling services for various clients, including Fortune 500 companies and political campaigns, with one California campaign relying heavily on its insights. In a unique instance, one AI agent declared it would vote for Mickey Mouse, explaining its disdain for both major candidates. Aaru maintains a low profile to avoid perceptions of youth interference in elections, despite their ambitious goal of simulating global events and conditions within two years. Currently, many clients remain discreet about using Aaru's services, but the think tank Heartland Forward recently commissioned a poll on public sentiment toward AI, largely underreported in the media. While AI models can "hallucinate" or produce incorrect answers, Aaru mitigates this issue through detailed guidelines and a multi-step reasoning process, improving overall accuracy. As of the latest updates, Aaru projects that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote by 4. 2 percentage points, with minimal impact from the recent attempted assassination of Trump, illustrating their capacity for real-time sentiment analysis. Fink notes that their methods allow them to monitor the effects of social media and other factors on voter sentiment closely.



Brief news summary

In a significant New York Democratic primary, centrist George Latimer triumphed over incumbent Jamaal Bowman with 58.7% of the votes versus Bowman's 41.3%. This result was anticipated by Aaru co-founders Cam Fink and Ned Koh, young college dropouts who have launched a startup leveraging cutting-edge AI polling techniques. Their innovative method employs chatbots to simulate actual voters by creating diverse profiles based on extensive census data. These AI agents adapt their voting preferences according to real-time political changes. Aaru asserts its AI-driven polling is more than ten times cheaper than traditional methods and has begun partnerships with Fortune 500 firms and political campaigns to enhance its technology for global event modeling in the next two years. Despite worries about possible inaccuracies in AI forecasts, Aaru argues its systematic approach increases prediction accuracy. The company tracks social media trends and public sentiment to deliver reliable forecasts for critical electoral outcomes, representing a new frontier in political polling.
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