A new report from Citi suggests that 2025 could be "blockchain's ChatGPT moment, " driven by regulatory changes spurring rapid adoption in the financial and public sectors, along with increased use of stablecoins. "I've been observing crypto and blockchain for nearly a decade, and we've consistently heard that institutions—banks and major investors—are coming, with some early involvement already, " said Ronit Ghose, global head of Future of Finance at the Citi Institute and a report author. He highlighted some adoption through expanded ETF options and entrants like BlackRock. Ghose added, "It feels like we're at the launch point for something significant happening in stablecoins due to imminent legislation. There's substantial change occurring in the U. S. legislative, regulatory, and political landscape relating to stablecoins, blockchain-based assets, and broadly, novel emerging technologies. " The report projects that stablecoins' total outstanding supply could reach as high as $3. 7 trillion by 2030 in Citi's optimistic scenario, with a more probable base case of $1. 6 trillion. However, analysts noted it might be closer to half a trillion dollars if adoption and integration challenges continue. Stablecoin supply has already expanded thirtyfold over the past five years, according to the report. Citi analysts anticipate stablecoins will remain primarily U. S. dollar-pegged—about 90% linked to USD—though other nations are likely to promote their own central bank digital currencies. "In the last three or four years, stablecoins have grown from almost nothing to over several hundred billion dollars, and they're still expanding, " Ghose told American Banker. "Their main use is as a crypto ecosystem token, similar to a U. S. Treasury asset or the cash component of the crypto world. When you sell an asset like bitcoin, you usually want to keep your funds within the crypto ecosystem on-chain rather than withdraw to a bank account. The best on-chain place to hold cash value is the stablecoin.

In Q4, the crypto market rallied sharply, which correspondingly boosted stablecoin activity. " If the U. S. enacts a regulatory framework for digital assets, analysts believe it could fuel new demand for U. S. Treasuries, potentially making stablecoin issuers among the largest holders of U. S. Treasuries by 2030. Their base model forecasts $1 trillion in net new U. S. Treasury purchases. Two bills aiming to regulate stablecoins are moving through Congress: the GENIUS Act in the Senate and the STABLE Act in the House. Both have cleared committee stages with bipartisan backing, and former President Donald Trump reportedly expects a stablecoin bill to reach his desk before the August recess. The bills are largely similar: both clarify that stablecoins are not securities and fall outside SEC jurisdiction, and each allows, in some cases, regulation of issuers at the state rather than federal level. While stablecoins pose potential challenges to traditional banking as an alternative deposit method, analysts find the opportunities likely outweigh concerns. The report suggests stablecoin adoption will offer banks and financial institutions new service avenues. Ghose noted he has heard from both traditional finance and crypto insiders worried stablecoins might weaken the U. S. dollar, but his research indicates the opposite. "The growth of stablecoins and tokenized financial assets is a significant positive for the dollar, " Ghose concluded.